PolyClaw

Trading-enabled Polymarket skill for OpenClaw.

Browse prediction markets, execute trades on-chain, and discover hedging opportunities using LLM-powered analysis. Full trading capability via split + CLOB execution on Polygon.

Disclaimer: This software is provided as-is for educational and experimental purposes. It is not financial advice. Trading prediction markets involves risk of loss. This code has not been audited. Use at your own risk and only with funds you can afford to lose.

Features

Market Browsing

• polyclaw markets trending — Top markets by 24h volume
• polyclaw markets search "query" — Search markets by keyword
• polyclaw market <id> — Market details with prices

Trading

• polyclaw buy <market_id> YES <amount> — Buy YES position
• polyclaw buy <market_id> NO <amount> — Buy NO position
• Split + CLOB execution (split USDC → YES+NO, sell unwanted side)

Position Tracking

• polyclaw positions — List open positions with live P&L
• polyclaw position <id> — Detailed position view
• Positions tracked locally in ~/.openclaw/polyclaw/positions.json

Wallet Management

• polyclaw wallet status — Show address, POL/USDC.e balances
• polyclaw wallet approve — Set Polymarket contract approvals (one-time)

Hedge Discovery

• polyclaw hedge scan — Scan trending markets for hedging opportunities
• polyclaw hedge scan --query "topic" — Scan markets matching a query
• polyclaw hedge analyze <id1> <id2> — Analyze specific market pair

Uses LLM-powered contrapositive logic to find covering portfolios. Only logically necessary implications are accepted — correlations and "likely" relationships are rejected.

Coverage tiers: T1 (≥95%), T2 (90-95%), T3 (85-90%)

Quick Start

1. Install Skill

Copy the skill to your OpenClaw skills directory:

cp -r polyclaw ~/.openclaw/skills/

Then install dependencies:

cd ~/.openclaw/skills/polyclaw
uv sync

2. Configure Environment Variables

Add the following to your openclaw.json under skills.entries.polyclaw.env:

"polyclaw": {
  "enabled": true,
  "env": {
    "CHAINSTACK_NODE": "https://polygon-mainnet.core.chainstack.com/YOUR_KEY",
    "POLYCLAW_PRIVATE_KEY": "0x...",
    "OPENROUTER_API_KEY": "sk-or-v1-...",
    "HTTPS_PROXY": "http://user:pass@proxy:port"
  }
}

Security Warning: Keep only small amounts in this wallet. Withdraw regularly to a secure wallet.

Looking for standalone CLI usage? This skill is designed for OpenClaw. For standalone CLI usage without OpenClaw, see polymarket-alpha-bot.

3. First-Time Setup (Required for Trading)

Before your first trade, set Polymarket contract approvals (one-time, costs ~0.01 POL in gas):

uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py wallet approve

This submits 6 approval transactions to Polygon. You only need to do this once per wallet.

4. Run Commands

# Browse markets
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py markets trending
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py markets search "election"

# Find hedging opportunities
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py hedge scan --limit 10

# Check wallet and trade
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py wallet status
uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py buy <market_id> YES 50

Environment Variables

Directory Structure

polyclaw/
├── SKILL.md                     # OpenClaw skill manifest
├── README.md                    # This file
├── pyproject.toml               # Python dependencies (uv)
│
├── scripts/
│   ├── polyclaw.py              # CLI dispatcher
│   ├── markets.py               # Market browsing (Gamma API)
│   ├── wallet.py                # Wallet management
│   ├── trade.py                 # Split + CLOB execution
│   ├── positions.py             # Position tracking + P&L
│   └── hedge.py                 # LLM hedge discovery
│
└── lib/
    ├── __init__.py              # Package marker
    ├── clob_client.py           # py-clob-client wrapper
    ├── contracts.py             # CTF ABI + addresses
    ├── coverage.py              # Coverage calculation + tiers
    ├── gamma_client.py          # Polymarket Gamma API client
    ├── llm_client.py            # OpenRouter LLM client
    ├── position_storage.py      # Position JSON storage
    └── wallet_manager.py        # Wallet lifecycle

Trading Flow

1. Set approvals (one-time): polyclaw wallet approve
2. Execute trade: polyclaw buy <market_id> YES 50
   • Split $50 USDC.e → 50 YES + 50 NO tokens
   • Sell 50 NO tokens via CLOB → recover ~$15 (at 30¢)
   • Result: 50 YES tokens, net cost ~$35
3. Track position: polyclaw positions

Understanding the Split Mechanism

Polymarket uses a Conditional Token Framework (CTF). You can't directly "buy YES tokens" — instead:

1. Split: Deposit USDC.e into the CTF contract, which mints equal amounts of YES + NO tokens
2. Sell unwanted: Sell the side you don't want via the CLOB order book
3. Result: You hold your desired position, having recovered partial cost from selling the other side

Example (buying YES at $0.65):

Split:  $2 USDC.e → 2 YES + 2 NO tokens
Sell:   2 NO tokens @ $0.35 → recover ~$0.70
Net:    Paid ~$1.30 for 2 YES tokens (effective price: $0.65)

CLOB Order IDs

When you execute a trade, the CLOB sell returns an order ID like:

0xc93d6214515b2436feb684854c98d314ad19111d7ab822a9c885d61588d5beaa

This is not a blockchain transaction hash — it's an off-chain Polymarket order book identifier. CLOB orders are matched off-chain and settled in batches on-chain.

What you can do with the order ID:

Query order details via the CLOB API (requires wallet authentication):

from py_clob_client.client import ClobClient

client = ClobClient("https://clob.polymarket.com", key=private_key, chain_id=137)
creds = client.create_or_derive_api_creds()
client.set_api_creds(creds)

order = client.get_order("0xc93d6214...")
# Returns: id, market, side, price, size_matched, status, created_at, etc.

API endpoint: GET https://clob.polymarket.com/data/order/<order_hash>

Response fields: id, market, asset_id, side, price, original_size, size_matched, status (MATCHED/LIVE/CANCELLED), type (FOK/GTC), created_at, maker_address, associate_trades

Note: There's no public explorer for CLOB order IDs. To view your trade history, connect your wallet at polymarket.com → Portfolio → Activity.

Hedge Discovery Flow

1. Scan markets: polyclaw hedge scan --query "election"
2. Review output: Table shows Tier, Coverage, Cost, Target, Cover
3. Analyze pair: polyclaw hedge analyze <id1> <id2>
4. Execute if profitable: Buy both positions manually

Coverage tiers:

• Tier 1 (HIGH): ≥95% coverage — near-arbitrage
• Tier 2 (GOOD): 90-95% — strong hedges
• Tier 3 (MODERATE): 85-90% — decent but noticeable risk
• Tier 4 (LOW): <85% — speculative (filtered by default)

Polymarket Contracts (Polygon Mainnet)

Troubleshooting

"No wallet available"

Set the POLYCLAW_PRIVATE_KEY environment variable:

export POLYCLAW_PRIVATE_KEY="0x..."

"CHAINSTACK_NODE not set"

Set the Polygon RPC URL:

export CHAINSTACK_NODE="https://polygon-mainnet.core.chainstack.com/YOUR_KEY"

"OPENROUTER_API_KEY not set"

Required for hedge commands. Get a free key at https://openrouter.ai/keys:

export OPENROUTER_API_KEY="sk-or-v1-..."

Hedge scan finds 0 results or spurious results

Model quality matters. The default nvidia/nemotron-nano-9b-v2:free works well. If using a different model:

• Some models find spurious correlations (false positives)
• Some models return empty responses (DeepSeek R1 uses reasoning_content)
• Try --model nvidia/nemotron-nano-9b-v2:free explicitly

"Insufficient USDC.e"

Check balance — you need USDC.e (bridged USDC) on Polygon:

uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py wallet status

"CLOB order failed" / "IP blocked by Cloudflare"

Polymarket's CLOB API uses Cloudflare protection that blocks POST requests from many IPs. The solution is a rotating residential proxy with retry logic.

Recommended setup (IPRoyal or similar):

export HTTPS_PROXY="http://user:pass@geo.iproyal.com:12321"
export CLOB_MAX_RETRIES=10

The CLOB client automatically retries with new IPs until finding an unblocked one. Typically succeeds within 5-10 attempts.

Alternative options:

1. Sell manually — Your split succeeded. Go to polymarket.com to sell tokens
2. Use --skip-sell — Keep both tokens: polyclaw buy <id> YES 50 --skip-sell

"Approvals not set"

Run the one-time approval setup:

uv run python scripts/polyclaw.py wallet approve

License

MIT

Credits

Based on polymarket-alpha-bot by Chainstack.

• Chainstack — Polygon RPC infrastructure
• Polymarket — Prediction market platform
• OpenRouter — LLM API for hedge discovery