Polymarket BTC 15m Assistant

A real-time trading assistant for Polymarket "Bitcoin Up or Down" 15-minute markets. It combines technical analysis, live price feeds, and market data to generate BUY UP / BUY DOWN signals, with optional automated trading via private key wallet.

Features

• Live price feeds: Polymarket WebSocket (Chainlink BTC/USD), on-chain Chainlink (Polygon), Binance spot
• Technical analysis: Heiken Ashi, RSI, MACD, VWAP, 1m/3m delta
• Signal engine: Computes model probabilities (LONG/SHORT %), edge vs market prices, and ENTER/NO_TRADE recommendations
• Trading: Place orders on Polymarket via CLOB API using your wallet private key
• Clawbot integration: AI-driven position sizing, take-profit, stop-loss, and pre-settlement sell when CLAWBOT_MODE=true

Requirements

• Node.js 18+
• npm

Installation & Quick Start

1. Install dependencies

cd PolymarketBTC15mAssistant-main
npm install

This downloads and installs all required packages. A postinstall script shrinks node_modules to reduce disk usage.

2. Configure environment

Copy the example env file and set your credentials:

# Windows CMD
copy .env.example .env

# Windows PowerShell
Copy-Item .env.example .env

# Linux / macOS
cp .env.example .env

Edit .env and set at least POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY and POLYMARKET_FUNDER if you plan to trade.

3. Run the bot

Live dashboard (signals, TA, market data — updates every second):

npm start

Get signal once (JSON output):

npm run signal

Place a trade (requires .env credentials):

npm run trade:up
# or
npm run trade:down

Press Ctrl+C to stop any running process.

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Configuration

Edit .env:

Example .env file

# Required for trading
POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x1234567890abcdef...
POLYMARKET_FUNDER=0xYourFunderAddressFromPolymarketSettings

# Optional
POLYMARKET_SIGNATURE_TYPE=2
POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE=5
POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE_USD=10
CLAWBOT_MODE=false
POLYMARKET_SLUG=
POLYGON_RPC_URL=https://polygon-rpc.com
HTTPS_PROXY=

Replace 0x1234567890abcdef... with your actual private key and 0xYourFunderAddressFromPolymarketSettings with your funder address from polymarket.com/settings.

Commands

npm start

Runs the live console dashboard. Displays:

• Current Polymarket BTC 15m market
• Time left until settlement
• TA indicators (Heiken Ashi, RSI, MACD, VWAP, Delta)
• Model probabilities (LONG/SHORT %)
• Polymarket UP/DOWN prices and liquidity
• Chainlink current price vs price-to-beat
• Signal: BUY UP, BUY DOWN, or NO TRADE

Updates every second. Press Ctrl+C to stop.

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npm run signal

Fetches the current signal once and outputs JSON. Use for scripts or Clawbot.

Output fields:

• action: ENTER or NO_TRADE
• side: UP or DOWN (when ENTER)
• phase: EARLY, MID, or LATE
• strength: STRONG, GOOD, or OPTIONAL
• modelUp, modelDown: Model probabilities (0–1)
• marketUp, marketDown: Market prices
• edgeUp, edgeDown: Edge vs market
• timeLeftMin: Minutes until settlement
• btcPrice: Current BTC price
• marketSnapshot: Market metadata, token IDs, orderbook

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npm run trade

Trade CLI. Supports:

Examples:

npm run trade -- --signal
npm run trade -- --execute=UP
npm run trade -- --execute=DOWN --yes

Behavior:

• Verifies current signal is ENTER and matches requested side
• Prompts for confirmation unless --yes
• Uses POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE or POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE_USD for size

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npm run trade:up / npm run trade:down

Shortcuts for --execute=UP and --execute=DOWN (with confirmation).

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npm run context

Builds Clawbot context JSON. Use when CLAWBOT_MODE=true so the AI can decide trade parameters.

Output:

• signal: Action, side, phase, strength, edge, model/market prices
• balance: USDCe balance
• riskAssessment: Risk level (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) and reason
• suggestedParams: Suggested sizeUsd, takeProfitPct, stopLossPct, preSettlementMin
• marketSnapshot: Market data for order placement

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npm run clawbot-execute

Executes a trade with Clawbot-provided parameters. Requires CLAWBOT_MODE=true.

Input (stdin or --params=):

{
  "side": "UP",
  "sizeUsd": 10,
  "takeProfitPct": 20,
  "stopLossPct": 12,
  "preSettlementMin": 3
}

Examples:

echo '{"side":"UP","sizeUsd":10,"takeProfitPct":20,"stopLossPct":12,"preSettlementMin":3}' | npm run clawbot-execute
npm run clawbot-execute -- --params='{"side":"DOWN","sizeUsd":5}'

Behavior:

• Verifies signal matches requested side
• Places order with given sizeUsd
• Saves position for TP/SL tracking
• Starts position monitor in background

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npm run monitor

Runs the position monitor daemon. Checks open positions every 5 seconds and:

• Take-profit: Sells when profit reaches takeProfitPct
• Stop-loss: Sells when loss reaches stopLossPct
• Pre-settlement: Sells when time left ≤ preSettlementMin

Runs until Ctrl+C. Requires CLAWBOT_MODE=true and positions created via clawbot-execute.

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How It Works

Signal Logic

1. Data: Fetches 1m/5m candles from Binance, Chainlink BTC/USD (Polymarket WS or Polygon), and Polymarket market snapshot.
2. Indicators: Computes VWAP, RSI, MACD, Heiken Ashi, 1m/3m delta.
3. Scoring: Combines indicators into LONG/SHORT probabilities with time-aware adjustment.
4. Edge: Compares model probabilities to Polymarket prices.
5. Decision: ENTER when edge exceeds phase-dependent threshold and model probability is high enough.

Trading Modes

Clawbot Flow

1. Run npm run context → AI receives signal, balance, risk, suggested params.
2. AI returns params (or uses suggested): side, sizeUsd, takeProfitPct, stopLossPct, preSettlementMin.
3. Run clawbot-execute with those params → order placed, position stored.
4. Run npm run monitor → monitors positions and sells on TP/SL/pre-settlement.

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Proxy Support

Set standard env vars:

• HTTPS_PROXY / https_proxy
• HTTP_PROXY / http_proxy
• ALL_PROXY / all_proxy

Example:

export HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:8080

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Logs

• ./logs/signals.csv — Signal history (timestamp, regime, signal, model/market prices, recommendation)
• ./logs/positions.json — Open positions for TP/SL (Clawbot mode)

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